Egon von Greyerz “Gold, Gold, Gold”

La suite ?

Planche à billets, suivi d’hyperinflation et chute des monnaies papier.

Audio (Anglais)————————>

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/12/16_Egon_von_Greyerz_files/Egon%20von%20Greyerz%2012%3A16%3A2011.mp3

Interview E.Sprott et J.Turk (Anglais)

 

 

 

J.Turk——-> http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/10/18_James_Turk_files/James%20Turk%2010%3A18%3A2011.mp3

 

E.Sprott——-> http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2011-1019-1.mp3

Marc Faber: Fed to Resume QE When U.S. Stocks Prices Fall

 

3ème guerre mondiale, plus proche que jamais….(G.CELENTE)

Gerald Celente on CFRA with Michael Harris, March 24th 2011

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gerald celente

Peter Schiff: Inflation is back

Marc Faber’s January 2011 Outlook—Correction Imminent

Investor extraordinaire Marc Faber is out with his latest Gloom, Boom, and Doom report, which discusses his outlook for 2011. Here are a few highlights:

1. Equity Markets–Faber believes a correction is imminent for the stock market as bullish sentiment (AAII sentiment) nears record levels and mutual fund cash positions remain very low. Furthermore, the latest upward move in stocks has occurred on declining volume, which is usually bearish from a technical point of view. The correction should occur in January. That being said, you should be buying into the correction as it represents a good buying opportunity. Faber prefers energy companies and speculative stocks such as home builders and even AIG. He goes on to say that the third year of a Presidential cycle is very good for speculative stocks versus traditional blue chip value plays.

2. Gold and Silver–Reiterates his favorable opinion on gold and silver. Doubts they are currently in a bubble as some analysts postulate. Faber notes that investor exposure is very low when you look you compare it to the world’s financial wealth, meaning that gold and silver are still under-owned and have room to run.

3. Emerging Markets–While he is very bullish long-term on emerging markets, investors should avoid (or at least lighten up on) emerging market stocks right now. They should only be bought on corrections which would represent favorable entry levels. Overall, Faber thinks the SP 500 will outperform emerging markets in 2011. The only emerging market that looks attractive right now is Vietnam (VNM).

4. Commodities–On a correction, Faber likes energy companies since the long-term trend in oil is up, as supply fails to keep up with surging demand from emerging markets. Notes that emerging markets have surpassed the developed world in oil consumption and that this trend should keep demand strong for the foreseeable future. Faber likes the majors like Exxon, Hess, and even Chesapeake as natural gas is too cheap on an inflation adjusted basis. Continuing the energy theme, coal and uranium stocks should be gradually accumulated on weakness as the world looks for alternative sources of reliable energy. Peabody on the coal side and Cameco for uranium should outperform over the next few years.

5. Bond Market–Reiterates his bearish long-term view on US Treasuries, but notes that they are currently oversold and could be a good trade at this point (TLT). But this would only be a short-term bounce as rates have likely bottomed and higher inflation will erode future returns.

6. Japan Equities–While everyone is still bearish on Japan, Faber likes Japanese equities and thinks they have the potential for more upside. In particular, he likes Japanese financials such as Nomura and Mizuho Financial.

Overall, Faber is pretty bullish on equities despite his prediction of a short-term pullback in January.
Happy New Year!

China to buy thousands of tons of gold over next years

Many gold producers have either already reported or are scheduled to report third quarter earnings within the next 2 weeks. Average spot gold prices have increased approximately 28 percent on a trailing twelve month basis to $1228 per ounce. Most unhedged gold equities are expected to exhibit substantial net income growth. In a bullish note to investors, Sprott Asset Management points out strong results across precious metals will be augmented by higher by-product prices (average silver, copper, and zinc prices were up 29 percent, 24 percent, and 15 percent year-over-year), which should set the stage for banner year-over-year earnings increases.

Compelling Market Forces

The World Gold Council issued its third quarter report for the current fiscal year. Juan Carlos Artigas, Investment Research Manager, the World Gold Council commented, “the third quarter of 2010 was again marked by mixed economic news from markets around the world. While emerging economies continue to recover, central banks in developed markets appear ready to keep monetary policy accommodative as long as necessary to spur growth. In particular, statements by the Federal Reserve, coupled with a large trade deficit and record levels of debt outstanding, started to put pressure on the US dollar and increase long-term inflation expectations.”

The Financial Times has recently reported that the most important new factor in the gold market is potentially China. China has more than $2.4 trillion of foreign exchange reserves, but only 1.7 percent of this is invested in gold. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting that China will run a surplus of $2.6 trillion during the next five years. If it does, its foreign exchange reserves could rise to the $5.0-$6.0 trillion range. Even if it keeps the gold share of its reserves constant, it will have to buy a further 1,000-1,500 tonnes. Odds are high that China will want to expand the gold share of its reserves to lessen its vulnerability to dollar devaluations and strengthen the renminbi’s status as a global currency.

Some Chinese officials have publicly called for the central bank to purchase 10,000 tonnes of gold. The central bank has declined to comment on these proposals, but they will become increasingly attractive if the U.S. pursues a policy of dollar devaluation while the renminbi emerges as a global currency.

It may be possible that the massive expansion of China’s foreign exchange reserves could create faster monetary growth and increase China’s inflation rate. If it does, there could be a sharp rise in Chinese private demand for gold.

China has deregulated its gold market since 2008 and private demand is increasing rapidly. It totalled 143 tonnes during the past 12 months compared with 73 tonnes in 2009 and 17 tonnes in 2008. It could easily rise to several hundred tonnes if investors perceive that China’s monetary growth is going to produce higher inflation.

Last week, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn, spoke with reporters after attending a G20 meeting in Korea.  Following discussions with authorities of China, Europe, Japan, and the United States, he suggested they all wanted to do their best to keep the global recovery on track, “They understand that the biggest threat today would be an endless fight over current accounts or confrontation over exchange rates.”

The U.S. government has been critical of China’s policy of pegging the renminbi to the dollar, but it would abandon this criticism if China pursued a policy of unsterilised currency intervention and allowed inflation to accelerate. The renminbi would then appreciate in real terms, and make Chinese goods less competitive.

There is no way to predict the timing of China’s future gold purchases, but many analysts believe there is a strong probability that they will create a demand for gold that will eclipse all other factors during the next quarter-century and guarantee large price gains irrespective of what happens to Federal Reserve policy.

Collateral Support

The current gold price has been a benefactor of the introduction of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) five years ago. These funds allow investors to purchase gold bullion as effortlessly as a share of stock. In the second quarter of 2010, investors bought more than 274 tonnes of gold through ETFs. Their holdings now exceed 2,000 tonnes, and are the sixth largest in the world after the official stocks at the IMF and the central banks of the U.S., Germany, France and Italy. At current growth rates, these ETFs could rank third by the end of 2012.

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/78000/20101102/gold-prices-supported-by-long-term-investor-china-appetites.htm

‘The World Does Not Need to End’ A Gold Bull and His Prediction: $10,000 an Ounce

There are gold bulls. And then there is Shayne McGuire.

The 44-year-old pension-fund manager from Texas, who spoke recently at a gold conference in Berlin, caused a stir among the roomful of gold aficionados. His provocation: A book that predicts the price of the precious metal could soar to $10,000 an ounce, more than seven times its current price.

Like those who once boldly predicted $1,000 Internet stocks and a 36000 Dow Jones Industrial Average, Mr. McGuire is a lone voice among mainstream investors suggesting such an outsize price jump in gold’s price.

Mr. McGuire’s view isn’t idle prognostication. He runs a $330 million gold portfolio at the Teacher Retirement System of Texas. Mr. McGuire’s forecast, which he made in the recently released book, “Hard Money,” makes him a very far outlier. Most on Wall Street consider the prediction outlandish.

“If you missed” gold’s recent run-up “you have to come up with some pretty sophisticated reasons to buy” now, says Andy Smith, metals analyst with Bache Commodities, a unit of Prudential Financial Inc.

Mr. McGuire was early to the gold trade. In 2007, he and a colleague persuaded the $100 billion Texas fund, the nation’s eighth largest, to move into the metal. It was a novel strategy that made it one of the few large U.S. pension funds to have a fund solely devoted to gold.

At the time, gold was trading at around $650, less than half its current price.

In his 2007 pitch, Mr. McGuire argued that gold was “the most underowned major asset, widely seen as an eccentric, anachronistic leftover from the pre-information age that is best for ‘end of world’ types.”

Not everyone at the Texas fund felt the same way. In one meeting, a pension executive sarcastically asked if anyone else in the room thought “the world was going to end?”

Indeed, most pension funds still steer clear of gold, investing just a fraction of 1% on average of their assets in the yellow metal, according to Alan Kosan, of Rogerscasey, an investment-consulting firm. Most pension funds consider gold too volatile and therefore too risky.

So far, however, Mr. McGuire is in the money. With gold prices surging this year, his fund is up about 25% since its inception a year ago. For its fiscal year ended in June, the Texas pension fund was up 15.6% overall. The gold fund has half its assets invested in a gold exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, and the rest invested in gold stocks.

Gold’s historic run-up was spurred by uncertainty about currencies, fears of inflation and continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. Like dot-com stocks in that bubble, which were difficult to value because many companies generated no earnings, gold is hard to value because it produces no earnings or revenue and costs money to store.

“It doesn’t do anything but cost you charges and stare at you,” billionaire investor Warren Buffett said in a recent interview.

There are other gold bulls, of course, including prominent hedge-fund manager John Paulson, who has predicted gold could go to $4,000 an ounce by as early as 2013.

For his part, Mr. McGuire says gold is no longer only for those who think financial Armageddon is near. He expects gold to soar amid rising inflation, among other things. “The world does not need to end for gold to go hyperbolic,” he says.

In his book, Mr. McGuire reasons that $10,000 gold is possible if enough other pension funds and big investors jump-start buying and move as little as 1% of total global stocks and bonds holdings into the metal. Such a migration into gold would equal enough demand to push prices up tenfold from their current level, he calculates.

Of course, the same argument would be true for nearly every other investment class. Mr. McGuire has confidence in his argument, however, because he believes inflation will return, which typically pushes gold prices higher.

He said he expects a series of fiscal crises to hit around the world. And then there is China, where he says that gold is “widely regarded as a basic savings asset.”

Gold prices also are rising because of the ascendancy of exchange-traded funds, which are funds that track an index but are be traded like a stock. The largest ETF, under the trading symbol GLD, now invests $50 billion, an amount that Mr. McGuire believes could grow far higher if investors shift a small percentage of their investment funds into gold. At its current level, the stock-market capitalization of all gold ETFs is about $80 billion, roughly that of McDonald’s Corp.

“Now that the value of modern money is becoming highly questionable, more and more people are turning to gold. It’s not the new thing; it’s a return to normal,” he says.

The son of a foreign correspondent for Newsweek, Mr. McGuire grew up in Mexico and spends leisure time playing chess and reading history books.

He is a fan of the financial history of the 1930s, and quotes from Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s first inaugural speech in 1933 about the importance of not overspending. Before joining the Texas pension fund in 2001, he was an analyst at Deutsche Bank and ING Barings.

His gold prediction is by far the most aggressive call he has made in his career, he says, but he says he ignores his doubters. “It seems like an aggressive call,” Mr. McGuire says, “but it’s really a comment on what governments have been doing to the monetary system.”

Of course, the risks of such a big prediction can affect one’s entire career, much as it did former stock analyst Henry Blodget, whose bullish call on Amazon.com was lambasted after shares plunged in the dot-com bust. “There are enough nutty-sounding gold targets out there that this one probably won’t shock anyone,” Mr. Blodget wrote in an email. “But it’s certainly a nice big headline-friendly number.”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304879604575582602233501196.html

China should significantly boost gold in reserves

China should significantly boost the amount of gold <XAU=> held in state reserves, a newspaper run by China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Wednesday, citing a local researcher.

Meng Qingfa, a researcher with China Chamber of International Commerce, was quoted by the International Business Daily as saying that China should eventually boost its gold reserves to a level equal to that held by the United States.

U.S. reserves stood at 8,133 tonnes as of the end of June, significantly higher than China’s current level of 1,054 tonnes.

“Doubtlessly, if the yuan is set to become an international currency like the dollar or the euro, China has to get a huge gold reserve to support it, and a reserve of 1,054 tonnes is far from being enough,” Meng said.

He added that China can keep buying gold at a price of about $1,300 per ounce, and China could build up a gold reserve as large as the United States’ current one by using only 10 percent of its $2.65 trillion stockpile of foreign exchange reserves.

Meng’s view does not represent China’s official stance. But the domestic appeals for China’s foreign exchange reserve regulator to buy bullion has been intensifying in recent years as the dollar has fallen and the gold price has moved higher.

Yi Gang, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said earlier this year that China will be prudent in adding gold to its official reserves, wary that any move to buy the precious metal would only serve to drive its price higher.

China vies with India to be the world’s top consumer of gold. China is already the top producer, with output of 313.98 tonnes last year, up by almost 50 percent in five years.

According to the World Gold Council, China’s share of global gold demand has doubled from 5 percent in 2002 to 11 percent in 2009, and China’s domestic gold mines could be exhausted within six years.

 

http://malaysia.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20101027/tbs-china-gold-21231dd.html

Is America In Decline? 24 Statistics About The United States Economy

Does anyone really want to hear that America is in decline?  For decades, most of us have been raised to believe that the United States is “number one” and that anyone who doubts that fact is a “gloom and doomer” that should just pack up and move to “Russia” or “Iraq” or some other country where things are not nearly as good.  But does it do us or future generations any good to ignore the very serious signs of trouble that are erupting all around us?  The truth is that it is about time to wake up and admit how much trouble we are actually in.  The U.S. government is absolutely drowning in debt.  The entire society is absolutely drowning in debt.  We are being slaughtered in the arena of world trade, and every single month tens of billions of dollars (along with large numbers of factories and jobs) leave our shores for good.  Our infrastructure is failing, our kids are less educated and our incomes are going down.  We have serious, serious problems.  At one time, the U.S. economy was so dominant that it was not even worth talking about who was in second place.  That is no longer the case in 2010.  Our forefathers handed us the greatest economic machine in history and we have allowed it to fall apart right in front of our eyes.  A national economic crisis of historic proportions is getting worse with each passing month, and yet most of our leaders seem to be asleep at the switch.

So is American in decline?  Well, read the statistics below and decide for yourself.  The reality is that when you start connecting the dots it gets really hard to deny what is going on.

Urgent action must be taken if things are going to be turned around.  It is time to get our heads out of the sand.  It is not guaranteed that the United States will always be the greatest economy in the world or that we will even continue to be prosperous.

For many Americans, it will be incredibly difficult to admit that our nation has become a debt addict and an economic punching bag for the rest of the world.

But if we are never willing to admit what the problems are, how are we ever going to come up with the solutions?

What you are about to read below is going to absolutely shock many of you.  But hopefully it will shock you enough to get you to take action.  We desperately need to change course as a nation.

The following are 24 statistics about the United States economy that are almost too embarrassing to admit….

#1 Ten years ago, the United States was ranked number one in average wealth per adult.  In 2010, the United States has fallen to seventh.

#2 The United States once had the highest proportion of young adults with post-secondary degrees in the world.  Today, the U.S. has fallen to 12th.

#3 In the 2009 “prosperity index” published by the Legatum Institute, the United States was ranked as just the ninth most prosperous country in the world.  That was down five places from 2008.

#4 In 2001, the United States ranked fourth in the world in per capita broadband Internet use.  Today it ranks 15th.

#5 The economy of India is projected to become larger than the U.S. economy by the year 2050.

#6 One prominent economist now says that the Chinese economy will be three times larger than the U.S. economy by the year 2040.

#7 According to a new study conducted by Thomson Reuters, China could become the global leader in patent filings by next year.

#8 The United States has lost approximately 42,400 factories since 2001.

#9 The United States has lost a staggering 32 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000.

#10 Manufacturing employment in the U.S. computer industry is actually lower in 2010 than it was in 1975.

#11 In 1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of all U.S. economic output.  In 2008, it represented only 11.5 percent.

#12 The television manufacturing industry began in the United States.  So how many televisions are manufactured in the United States today?  According to Princeton University economist Alan S. Blinder, the grand total is zero.

#13 As of the end of 2009, less than 12 million Americans worked in manufacturing.  The last time that less than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.

#14 Back in 1980, the United States imported approximately 37 percent of  the oil that we use.  Now we import nearly 60 percent of the oil that we use.

#15 The U.S. trade deficit is running about 40 or 50 billion dollars a month in 2010.  That means that by the end of the year approximately half a trillion dollars (or more) will have left the United States for good.

#16 Between 2000 and 2009, America’s trade deficit with China increased nearly 300 percent.

#17 Today, the United States spends approximately $3.90 on Chinese goods for every $1 that China spends on goods from the United States.

#18 According to a new study conducted by the Economic Policy Institute, if the U.S. trade deficit with China continues to increase at its current rate, the U.S. economy will lose over half a million jobs this year alone.

#19 American 15-year-olds do not even rank in the top half of all advanced nations when it comes to math or science literacy.

#20 Median household income in the U.S. declined from $51,726 in 2008 to $50,221 in 2009.  That was the second yearly decline in a row.

#21 The United States has the third worst poverty rate among the advanced nations tracked by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

#22 Since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, the U.S. dollar has lost over 95 percent of its purchasing power.

#23 U.S. government spending as a percentage of GDP is now up to approximately 36 percent.

#24 The Congressional Budget Office is projecting that U.S. government public debt will hit 716 percent of GDP by the year 2080.

Please share these statistics with as many family members and friends as you can.  It is time to get real.  It is time to admit that we have some really big problems.

America is in decline and the situation is getting worse by the day.  If we are not willing to admit how bad things really are, then we are never even going to have a chance to find the solutions that we need.

 

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/is-america-in-decline-24-statistics-about-the-united-states-economy-that-are-almost-too-embarrassing-to-admit

42 million Americans were in receipt of food stamps

Albert Edwards of Societe Generale thinks U.S. citizens are on the brink of a political revolt, based on a declining standard of living brought on by an inefficient economic relationship with China.

Here’s why, according to Edwards:

This would happen in any nation where a vision of prosperity has been shown to be a Ponzi sham, engineered by the authorities to help disguise the fact that the rich have been getting a whole lot richer.

What Edwards sees is the depressed state of the U.S. citizen getting worse. He sees unemployment rising and another recession near.

From Albert Edwards:

The latest US poverty data is staggering. Some 42 million Americans were in receipt of food stamps in July, up some 18% yoy (see chart below). Make no mistake, the government isn’t throwing money at people willy-nilly those in receipt of stamps are on the poverty line, currently defined as a 2 adult and 2 children household having a net income of $22,056 p.a. (£14,000, 16,000)

So how are the two linked? China continues to amass more reserves and experience an advantageous exchange rate with the U.S. The country is “hooked on” an investment led economy, and is now only making small moves, like trying to grow consumer spending, to counter, according to Edwards.

China just isn’t moving fast enough for the U.S. public.

Edwards is confident what is next for the U.S. is an even more inflamed populace that targets tariff actions against China in a spiraling upwards of the current currency war.

http://www.businessinsider.com/socgens-albert-edwards-says-the-us-public-is-about-to-revolt-2010-10

If Obama follow the advise of Krugman, gold will cruise above 10.000$/once !

 

THIS IS AN ATOMIC NEWS !

Krugman suggest we need 8 to 10 trillions $,  to save the US economy.

If that happen, gold will be cheap at 10.000$/once.

BE READY !

MUST READ AND WATCH, NOW !

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/10/krugman-we-need-8-10-trillion-worth-of-quantitative-easing.html

Fears of currency wars helping to lift gold prices

Until recently, it seems that one of the main underpinnings in the strength of gold has been fears of inflation. However, inflation data in the last several months has lead to an increased focus on the possibility that deflation may be the “flation” on the horizon.

As inflation looks increasingly distant in the rear view mirror, a new idea is gaining more mainstream attention as an explanation for gold. That idea revolves around the opinion of investors that currencies are being sacrificed by governments desperate to maintain their exports. The problem with this policy approach is that as long as each country seeks to benefit by depreciating its own currency, then other countries will suffer. In short, this beggar thy neighbor policy attempts to fix one country’s problems at the expense of the others.

The US dollar can be seen as a poster child for this policy. The criticism from countries such as Japan has been that the US government has stood by – content to see the US dollar fall – in the hopes that the level of US exports would rise. Also not lost on many investors is the fact that almost 50% of the earnings for the companies in the S&P 500 stock market index come from abroad. Thus, a lower $US is supposed to do wonders for US companies.

Last month, Japan had seen enough of the Yen being used to carry the water for the global economy. The strength in the Yen has been a thorn in the side of the Japanese government for some time. According to the Japanese finance ministry, a total of $25.46 billion was spent in order to weaken the Yen. Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan has stated the deflation was continuing because of weak consumer demand which stemmed from a lack of consumer confidence. If this sounds familiar, it is – this is the exact message investors are hearing from policy makers in the US and Europe.

During the European PIIGS crisis earlier this year, the Swiss National Bank increased its foreign currency investments by over 132 billion Swiss Francs in the first half of this year. In the process, it lost over 14 billion Swiss Francs. The one offset was a gain in the value of its gold holdings.

The central issue is that much of the developed world is facing the same challenges and the scary part of it is that the US, Europe and Japan are content to defile their currencies – if that is what it takes. After all, all of these countries are facing enormous debt loads, massive unemployment and flat consumer demand.

China has also drawn criticism from both Japan and the US. The US House of Representatives has recently passed a bill that would impose penalties on Chinese exports to the US in order to help domestic US industries. It seems that the Chinese Yuan is one of the few things that can unite Republicans, Democrats and the Tea Party.

With challenges like these, the nations of the world should be looking at more cooperation – the way they came together during the depths of the financial crisis. It might go a lot further than trying to outdo each other in the currency devaluation game. It seems the only victor of this game will be gold.

Read more: http://business.financialpost.com/2010/10/04/fears-of-currency-wars-helping-to-lift-gold-prices/#ixzz11Z7578WA

Super-rich investors buying gold by the tonne

The world’s wealthiest people have responded to economic worries by buying bars of gold, sometimes by the tonne, and moving assets out of the financial system, bankers catering to the very rich said on Monday.

UBS executive Josef Stadler told the Reuters Global Private Banking Summit that fears of a double-dip downturn had boosted the appetite for physical bullion as well as mining company shares and exchange-traded funds.

“They don’t only buy ETFs or futures, they buy physical gold,” said Stadler, who runs the Swiss bank’s services for clients with assets of at least US$50 million to invest.

UBS is recommending their top-tier clients hold 7-10 percent of their assets in precious metals like gold, which is on course for its tenth consecutive yearly gain and traded at around US$1,317 an ounce on Monday.

In a sign of the uncertain times, some clients go further.

We had a clear example of a couple buying over a tonne of gold … and carrying it to another place,” Stadler said.

At today’s prices, that shipment would be worth about US$42 million.

Julius Baer’s chief investment officer for Asia is also recommending that wealthy investors park some of their assets in gold as a defensive stance following a string of lacklustre U.S. data and amid concerns about currency weakness.

“I see gold as an insurance,” Van Anantha-Nageswaran said. “I recommend 10 percent as minimum in portfolios and anything more than that to be used for trading purposes, to respond to short-term over-bought or over-sold signals.”

Billionaire financier George Soros, echoing comments from investment guru Warren Buffett, last month described gold as the “ultimate bubble” because it is costly to dig out of the ground and has no real value except its market price.

But rising prices for the precious metal have in themselves generated more and more demand from investors looking for a way to hedge themselves against a fresh recession. Gold bears no yield and is uncompetitive in an environment of rising interest rates.

The uneasy outlook for inflation, hard currencies and global growth has triggered a five-fold increase in a physical gold fund launched by Pictet one year ago, the Swiss private bank said.

UBS’s Stadler said the precious metal had become a staple of investors’ portfolios, despite questions about whether it makes for a smart long-term investment.

“If you talk to ultra-high net worth individuals that level of uncertainty has never been higher in the last two, three, four years,” he said. “If they ask me ‘is inflation going up or are we entering a deflationary cycle?’, I don’t know. But obviously nobody knows.”

But not all bankers are recommending exposure to gold.

Andreas Wolfer, head of private banking at UniCredit Group, attributed the run-up to the price of gold to frayed investor nerves after the 2008 financial crisis as well as concerns about sovereign debt in the euro zone.

“We have seen it but we have not overweighted it in our asset allocation,” Wolfer told the Reuters Summit in Geneva, which has emerged as a major trading hub for precious metals as well as other physical commodities.

“We strongly believe in an asset allocation having a clear and diversified portfolio, which sounds a bit boring but in the end it brings the best returns,” Wolfer said.

Read more: http://www.financialpost.com/Super+rich+investors+buying+gold+tonne/3620343/story.html#ixzz11PRyeClo

John Paulson’s: Double Digit Inflation By 2012, Gold At $4,000

Tags

Banknote, Bond market, Economic growth, Federal Reserve System, Gold as an investment, Inflation, Precious metal, Stock

According to InfoWars, he told the audience that he thinks the price of gold will hit $2400-$4000. And a whopping 80% of his assets are in gold.

Given his expectation for further money printing by the Fed – and that in 1980 the gold price rose by 100% more than the correlation implied – Paulson noted that the price of gold could hit $2,400 based only on monetary expansion, and as high as $4,000 per ounce based on a projected overshoot.

Lastly, he noted that 80% of his assets are denominated in gold.

We rarely get to hear Paulson’s opinion on the market unless it’s filtered through his stiffer research reports. As a result, he has never been so extreme in his predictions as he seems to be now.

Here’s what Paulson sees coming:

• Low double-digit inflation by 2012, killing the bond market, and restoring strength to equities and gold.
• 2% GDP growth for 2011 and 2012
• Gold hitting $2,400 to $4,000

It’s worth noting that if gold goes to $4,000, Paulson will be a top contender for the richest man in the world.

http://www.businessinsider.com/john-paulson-gold-at-4000-double-digit-inflation-real-estate-2010#ixzz112bYttfC

Gold “Absolutely” Still a Buy: Metal Will Double in 5 Years, Frank Holmes Says

Tags

Business, Emerging markets, Frank E. Holmes, Frank Holmes, Inflation, Market trend, Money supply, Mutual fund

Gold jumped back above $1300 per ounce Tuesday morning and “absolutely” has more upside ahead, according to Frank Holmes, CEO and CIO of U.S. Global Investors, which has about $2.6 billion of assets.

Despite all the hype about its multi-year rally, gold is actually lagging many other commodities in that it hasn’t yet eclipsed its 1980 high on an inflation-adjusted basis, Holmes says, noting the same is true of silver.

“If we were to go through those 1980 [inflation-] adjusted prices, gold would be at $2300 per ounce today,” he says, calling that a “fair” target for the metal.

There is no bubble” in gold, Holmes says, declaring “it’s a pretty easy layup that gold can double” from here over the next 5 years.

Holmes, who co-manages U.S. Global’s Gold & Precious Metals Fund and World Precious Minerals Fund, cites the following to justify his bullish outlook:

Growth in Global Money Supply: Government efforts to fight the credit crisis have included huge spending and debt guarantee programs, resulting in greater supply but less confidence in “paper money.” (On Tuesday, the Dollar Index fell to its lowest level since early February as weak U.S. economic data point to more efforts by the Fed to “reflate” the economy via quantitative easing.)

Emerging Middle Class: The big difference between gold’s current run and the bull market of the 1970′s is the “economic footprint” of emerging market economies, most notably India and China, Holmes says. “Forty percent of the world’s population believe in gold and give gold as gifts” — and have the money to buy them in increasing numbers.

The Big Dumb Money: “All the pension funds, all the endowment [funds] aren’t running into gold…yet,” Holmes says, noting those investors “piled into” tech in 2000 and private equity funds in 2006. Meanwhile, European Central Banks have dramatically slowed their gold sales and could become buyers in the years ahead.

Alchemy vs. Reality: Gold skeptics often note that almost every ounce of gold ever mined remains in existence. That may be true, but Holmes says new supply is on the wane, suggesting it’s “easier to invent a new technology” than find a 10 million ounce deposit. And if you were to discover such a bonanza, you’d have to incur huge infrastructure costs and meet rising regulatory hurdles to get the ‘yellow metal’ out of the ground.

Of course, you should question anything that looks like a “can’t lose” investment – and bulls say gold wins whether the economy is hit by deflation or inflation. But gold has defied its skeptics for a decade and shows no sign of letting up now.

VIDEO HERE —->

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/gold-%22absolutely%22-still-a-buy-metal-will-double-in-5-years-frank-holmes-says-535459.html?tickers=GLD,GDX,GROW,NEM,AU,ABX,FCX

Of course, gold can go higher

We have a new world order where China and India are buying gold on every dip, where the West faces an ageing crisis, and where the sovereign states of the US, Japan, and most of Western Europe have public debt trajectories near or beyond the point of no return.

The managers of all four reserve currencies are playing fast and loose: the Fed is clipping the dollar; the Bank of England is clipping sterling; the European Central Bank is buying the bonds of EMU debtors to stave off insolvency, something it vowed never to do just months ago; and the Bank of Japan has just carried out two trillion yen of “unsterilized” intervention.

Of course, gold can go higher.

The entire article, here —->

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8026324/Gold-is-the-final-refuge-against-universal-currency-debasement.html

Increasing Demand for Gold and Platinum as Catastrophe Insurance

A precious metals note today, in honor of gold breaking $1,300/oz (briefly) this morning.

Some of the buying that’s propelled gold lately is from investors who want to hold metal as currency. Having something tangible in your pocket provides insurance if another financial catastrophe descends on the world.

JP Morgan recognizes this demand. On Wednesday, JPM announced it will open its first precious metals storage vault in Asia.

The facility will be located in Singapore, near Changi Airport (just in case you want to grab your gold and fly). The stated goal is to provide precious metals storage for “corporate, institutional and retail” clients.

Some of the people using this facility will be investors from outside Asia, looking to geographically diversify their gold holdings. Many investors are leery of keeping all their gold in one basket, just in case governments get confiscatory.

Perhaps more interestingly, the new facility will allow local Asian investors to get more involved in owning physical metal. Recently, the Singapore Mercantile Exchange announced the launch of a physically-settled gold contract that will be delivered at the JP Morgan vault.

But will gold be the number one choice in Singapore? Asia has always been a little different when it comes to precious metals. Many Asians prefer platinum as “catastrophe insurance”.

Look at Japan. On the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM), open interest in gold amounts to 3.5 million ounces. Or about 5% of the 60 million ounces in open interest seen on the NYMEX exchange in New York.

With platinum, Japan’s percentage of global trade is much higher. Open platinum interest on TOCOM is 840,000 ounces. This is 45% of the NYMEX open interest in platinum, which currently stands at 1.9 million ounces.

As options like the new JP Morgan Singapore vault come available to Asian investors, it will be interesting to see what metal they choose. If they follow the Japanese example, this could become an important new source of demand for both platinum and gold.

http://oilprice.com/Metals/Gold/Increasing-Demand-for-Gold-and-Platinum-as-Catastrophe-Insurance.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+oilpricecom+%28Oil+Price.com+Daily+News+Update%29

Russia’s Central Bank Buys 300,000 Ounces of Gold in August

The big gold news yesterday came from the monthly update over at The Central Bank of the Russian Federation. They reported purchasing 300,000 ounces of gold bullion for their reserves in August. Year-to-date they’ve purchased 3.1 million ounces… a hair over 96 tonnes. I’m sure China is socking away gold as well, except they aren’t advertising the fact. Russia is broadcasting it to the world. Here’s the graph courtesy of Richard Nachbar and his most excellent assistant, Susan McCarthy.